Jutanuch Wanachote
According to the latest research from ForwardKeys, an Amadeus company, European travel demand continues to grow year-over-year and shows strong momentum heading into the final quarter of 2025. This growth is fuelled by the enduring appeal of Europe’s iconic capitals and powerhouse destinations, supported by robust intra-European travel flows.
Demand for travel to Europe is on the rise
International arrivals to Europe year-to-date sit +4% above the same period last year, driven by an increase in demand for destinations in Central and Eastern Europe (+7%) and Southern Europe (+4%), which represents by far the largest destination region (59% share of all European arrivals). Tourist arrivals to Northern and Western Europe also performed well so far this year, with each region welcoming an additional +3% of tourist stays between January and August.
According to ForwardKeys’ Air Supply data, airlines are significantly ramping up operations across Europe. Between January and September, seat capacity on flights to Poland (+12%), Türkiye (+8%), and Spain (+7%) stand out as the continent’s strongest performers.
The outlook for Q4 remains positive
Flight reservations for tourist arrivals in Europe in the final quarter of 2025 are currently +11% above last year’s performance, with bookings as of 13 September. Stand-out destinations include Rome, Barcelona and Paris – 3 European powerhouses, each with distinct tourist offerings.
Tourist arrivals (return trips of 1 night or more) to Rome are made up predominantly by couples (44% of all bookings), but it’s family-sized-groups (3-5 pax) and larger groups (6+ pax) that are performing the strongest compared with last year, with +28% more reservations for Q4 arrivals on-the-books compared with the same period last year. The good performance on the larger groups segment can be attributed to the combined effect of the return of visitors from key Asian markets (like South Korea and Indonesia) and strong demand from more traditional markets such as the USA and Germany.
Key origin markets arriving in Rome
Considering origin markets within the EU27 & UK it is Germany that stands out as a key market, both because of its size and its dynamism. Indeed, flight reservations from Germany are on track to increase by +32% year-over-year. Arrivals from Poland and the United Kingdom are close behind.
Increased Supply Signals Strong Outlook for Italy’s Tourism
Year-to-date, airlines have increased international seat capacity to Rome by +4%, with notable growth from Poland (+30%) and Portugal (+18%). Additional increases came from major origin markets such as Spain (+4%) and the United Kingdom (+8%).
Across Italy as a whole, available seats rose by +6%, while Southern Europe saw a +7% increase, reflecting airlines’ efforts to align supply with strong demand.
Looking ahead, forecasted capacity for flights to Italy between October and December is +10% higher than last year, driven by strong growth from Poland (+29%), Romania (+18%), and the USA (+19%).
“Airlines are responding decisively to demand, increasing capacity across Europe. This alignment between supply and demand is a strong signal of the resilience and vitality of European tourism. With bookings to Europe for the final quarter on track to increase by +11% ahead of last year, and capacity to Italy forecast to rise by +10%, the industry is clearly preparing for a very strong finish to 2025.”
Olivier Ponti, Director of Intelligence & Marketing at ForwardKeys
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